What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Dilution of Iran's Uranium" at 18.5% on "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?". Up 4.0%p from yesterday. $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
▲4.019%
PoliticsVol $6.4KTotal volume $1.2MLiquidity $286KComments 12in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
18.5%
▲4.0
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
13.5%
▲0.5
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
12.5%
–
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
10.5%
▲1.0
Iran Reconstruction Funding
8.50%
–
Enriched Uranium Surrender
4.50%
–
Probability over time
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
Iran Reconstruction Funding
Enriched Uranium Surrender
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
