What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Most likely right now
Iran Reconstruction Funding
5.013%
PoliticsVol $8.3KTotal volume $692KLiquidity $207KComments 8in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Iran Reconstruction Funding
12.5%
5.0
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
10.5%
1.0
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
10.0%
0.5
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
9.50%
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
9.50%
1.0
Enriched Uranium Surrender
8.50%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.