Which bills will become law in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Credit-card routing competition" at 25.9% on "Which bills will become law in 2026?". Up 12.6%p from yesterday. $2.0K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 14 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Credit-card routing competition
▲12.626%
PoliticsVol $2.0KTotal volume $177KLiquidity $89KComments 1in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Credit-card routing competition
25.9%
▲12.6
Export-control chip security
25.0%
▲2.0
AI-chip export licensing
14.0%
▲0.5
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
13.5%
▲3.0
NO FAKES Act
13.0%
▲5.5
Film/TV production expensing
12.4%
▼5.3
Data center utility cost protection
11.0%
–
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
10.2%
▼0.8
DEFIANCE Act
6.80%
▼0.5
$2.50 Coin
6.50%
▼0.5
Critical-minerals stockpile
6.50%
▼8.5
SHOWER Act
3.55%
▼0.7
SELF DRIVE Act
2.80%
–
Trump Airport
2.65%
–
Probability over time
Credit-card routing competition
Export-control chip security
AI-chip export licensing
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
NO FAKES Act
Film/TV production expensing
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
