Which bills will become law in 2026?
Most likely right now
Export-control chip security
▼3.036%
PoliticsVol $15Total volume $155KLiquidity $17KComments 1in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Export-control chip security
36.0%
▼3.0
AI-chip export licensing
31.0%
▼5.0
DEFIANCE Act
25.5%
▲3.0
Critical-minerals stockpile
20.0%
▼0.5
Film/TV production expensing
17.0%
▲2.5
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
13.5%
▼0.5
$2.50 Coin
12.5%
▲2.5
Data center utility cost protection
9.50%
▼0.5
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
7.45%
–
Credit-card routing competition
6.85%
▼2.8
SELF DRIVE Act
6.20%
–
Trump Airport
4.05%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
