Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Polymarket traders put "Ricardo Ruiz Velasco" at 42.0% on "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
1.042%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $143KLiquidity $911Comments 2in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
42.0%
1.0
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
41.5%
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
37.7%
9.3
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
32.9%
1.7
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
25.5%
0.5

Probability over time

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.