Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Ricardo Ruiz Velasco" at 42.0% on "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
▲1.042%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $143KLiquidity $911Comments 2in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
42.0%
▲1.0
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
41.5%
–
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
37.7%
▼9.3
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
32.9%
▼1.7
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
25.5%
▲0.5
Probability over time
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
