Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Most likely right now
Indonesia
–10%
PoliticsVol $2.2KTotal volume $735KLiquidity $325Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Indonesia
9.50%
–
Saudi Arabia
9.00%
▼0.5
Lebanon
9.00%
▲0.5
Venezuela
9.00%
▼0.5
Tunisia
6.50%
–
Kuwait
6.50%
▼0.5
Syria
5.50%
▼0.5
Qatar
4.80%
–
North Korea
4.75%
–
Pakistan
4.50%
–
Iran
4.45%
–
Bangladesh
4.35%
–
Cuba
4.25%
–
Afghanistan
4.05%
–
Iraq
3.85%
–
Malaysia
3.85%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
