Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Most likely right now
Rand Paul
14.024%
PoliticsVol $45Total volume $8.3KLiquidity $61Kin 1.4 years (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Rand Paul
23.9%
14.0
Marjorie Taylor Greene
21.8%
Ron DeSantis
16.0%
1.5
Ted Cruz
14.5%
4.0
J.D. Vance
12.5%
Vivek Ramaswamy
12.0%
2.5
Donald Trump Jr.
5.85%
Marco Rubio
4.70%
1.4
Donald Trump
4.40%
1.9
Glenn Youngkin
1.30%
1.1

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.