Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
Polymarket traders put "J.D. Vance" at 28.5% on "Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?". There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
J.D. Vance
–28%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $12KLiquidity $88Kin 1.2 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
J.D. Vance
28.5%
–
Ron DeSantis
20.5%
–
Ted Cruz
14.5%
–
Marco Rubio
5.80%
–
Donald Trump Jr.
5.80%
–
Donald Trump
4.45%
–
Marjorie Taylor Greene
4.10%
–
Rand Paul
4.05%
–
Glenn Youngkin
1.10%
–
Vivek Ramaswamy
0.60%
–
Probability over time
J.D. Vance
Ron DeSantis
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
