Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Polymarket traders put "Democratic" at 63.5% on "Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $15K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 8.

Most likely right now
Democratic
▼1.064%
PoliticsVol $15KTotal volume $2.5MLiquidity $625KComments 95in 2.1 years (Nov 8)
Current probability

Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democratic
63.5%
▼1.0
Republican
34.5%
–

Probability over time

Democratic
Republican
02550751008/259/69/139/209/2710/410/10
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.