Which Senate races will be within 1%?
Polymarket traders put "Iowa" at 20.0% on "Which Senate races will be within 1%?". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. $798 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 17 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Iowa
▲0.520%
PoliticsVol $798Total volume $15KLiquidity $241Kin 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Iowa
20.0%
▲0.5
Nebraska
19.0%
–
Ohio (Special)
18.8%
▼17.0
Michigan
17.4%
▼8.8
Texas
16.5%
–
Maine
15.5%
–
Kansas
14.5%
–
New Hampshire
10.0%
–
Alaska
9.50%
▼0.5
Florida (Special)
5.95%
–
Georgia
4.75%
▼1.0
New Mexico
4.50%
–
Virginia
4.40%
▼1.8
Montana
4.05%
▲0.7
North Carolina
3.70%
–
Colorado
3.20%
–
Minnesota
2.35%
–
Probability over time
Iowa
Nebraska
Ohio (Special)
Michigan
Texas
Maine
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
