Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Polymarket traders put "Texas" at 75.5% on "Which Senate races will be within 5%?". $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 18 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Texas
–76%
PoliticsVol $2.1KTotal volume $93KLiquidity $414Kin 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Texas
75.5%
–
Iowa
69.5%
–
Michigan
68.5%
▲6.5
Alaska
65.5%
▼4.0
Kansas
64.5%
–
Nebraska
63.0%
▼2.5
Ohio (Special)
62.0%
▲2.0
Maine
60.0%
▼0.5
South Carolina
49.5%
▼17.5
Georgia
36.5%
▲2.0
New Hampshire
32.5%
–
Florida (Special)
31.5%
▼2.0
Minnesota
19.5%
▼0.5
North Carolina
16.5%
▼0.5
Montana
13.1%
–
Virginia
8.95%
▲2.1
New Mexico
8.00%
▼1.5
Colorado
3.15%
–
Probability over time
Texas
Iowa
Michigan
Alaska
Kansas
Nebraska
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
