Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Most likely right now
Texas
0.585%
PoliticsVol $2.3KTotal volume $44KLiquidity $249Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Texas
84.5%
0.5
Alaska
69.5%
15.0
Iowa
67.5%
Nebraska
67.0%
15.5
Maine
66.5%
Ohio (Special)
66.0%
New Hampshire
53.5%
Michigan
52.5%
1.0
Florida (Special)
31.0%
4.0
Georgia
19.5%
New Mexico
11.5%
North Carolina
9.50%
1.5
Minnesota
5.50%
0.5
Montana
4.75%
Virginia
3.40%
2.1
Colorado
2.40%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.