Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Most likely right now
Steve Witkoff
▲3.541%
PoliticsVol $34KTotal volume $291KLiquidity $255Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Steve Witkoff
41.0%
▲3.5
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
40.5%
▲1.5
Jared Kushner
36.5%
▼2.5
Abbas Araghchi
33.5%
–
J.D. Vance
30.5%
▼2.0
Ishaq Dar
29.5%
–
Kazem Gharibabadi
24.0%
▼5.5
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
21.5%
▼14.5
Rafael Grossi
19.0%
▲6.5
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18.0%
▲0.5
Nick Stewart
18.0%
▼1.5
Ahmad Vahidi
13.8%
▲9.2
Masoud Pezeshkian
13.0%
▲0.5
Donald Trump
12.5%
▲7.2
Marco Rubio
12.5%
–
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
11.5%
▲2.0
Pete Hegseth
7.50%
▼3.0
Esmail Qaani
6.95%
–
Mojtaba Khamenei
5.05%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
