Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket traders put "Steve Witkoff" at 41.5% on "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?". Down 2.0%p from yesterday. $8.9K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 23 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Steve Witkoff
▼2.042%
PoliticsVol $8.9KTotal volume $1.3MLiquidity $472Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Steve Witkoff
41.5%
▼2.0
Jared Kushner
41.5%
▼3.0
Abbas Araghchi
40.5%
▼2.0
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
39.0%
▼4.0
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
30.0%
▲4.0
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
24.5%
▲0.5
Nick Stewart
21.5%
–
J.D. Vance
19.5%
–
Kazem Gharibabadi
19.5%
–
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
14.5%
–
Rafael Grossi
14.5%
▼17.5
Masoud Pezeshkian
12.5%
–
Ishaq Dar
12.5%
▼6.0
Marco Rubio
8.50%
▲0.5
Donald Trump
4.60%
–
Pete Hegseth
4.50%
–
Ahmad Vahidi
4.30%
–
Newt Gingrich
3.80%
▼0.5
Esmail Qaani
3.00%
–
Palmer Luckey
2.75%
–
Elon Musk
2.50%
–
Mohammed bin Salman
2.30%
–
Mojtaba Khamenei
2.15%
–
Probability over time
Steve Witkoff
Jared Kushner
Abbas Araghchi
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
