Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
Polymarket traders put "John Healey" at 13.5% on "Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?". There are 22 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
John Healey
–14%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $131KLiquidity $246KComments 1in 1.2 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
John Healey
13.5%
–
Miatta Fahnbulleh
10.3%
–
Yvette Cooper
7.65%
–
Shabana Mahmood
5.20%
–
Alan Campbell
5.20%
▲0.9
Angela Rayner
4.95%
▲0.6
Angela Smith
4.75%
–
Lisa Nandy
4.40%
–
Stephen Kinnock
4.30%
–
Chris Bryant
4.25%
–
Jonathan Reynolds
3.85%
–
Louise Haigh
3.75%
–
Alex Norris
3.75%
–
Douglas Alexander
3.75%
▼2.3
Ed Miliband
3.60%
–
Pat McFadden
3.60%
–
Angela Eagle
3.60%
–
Wes Streeting
3.55%
–
Bridget Phillipson
3.10%
▼8.0
Lucy Powell
2.95%
–
Heidi Alexander
2.85%
–
Anneliese Midgley
1.85%
–
Probability over time
John Healey
Miatta Fahnbulleh
Yvette Cooper
Shabana Mahmood
Alan Campbell
Angela Rayner
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
