KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

Polymarket traders put "KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?" at 7.1%. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
–7%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $273KLiquidity $11KComments 3in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
7.10%
–

Probability over time

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
02550751008/259/69/139/209/2710/410/9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.