Will any country leave NATO by...?
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–3%
PoliticsVol $34Total volume $1.4MLiquidity $21KComments 26in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
3.25%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
