Will any country leave NATO by...?
Polymarket traders put "Will any country leave NATO by...?" at 4.5%. Unchanged from yesterday. $73 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–5%
PoliticsVol $73Total volume $1.4MLiquidity $18KComments 26in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
4.55%
–
Probability over time
December 31, 2026
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
