Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?" at 5.9%. Unchanged from yesterday. $388 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
–6%
PoliticsVol $388Total volume $262KLiquidity $53Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
5.85%
–
Probability over time
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
