Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 2.4%. Unchanged from yesterday. $38K traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
–2%
PoliticsVol $38KTotal volume $43.7MLiquidity $637KComments 73in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2.35%
–
Probability over time
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
