Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
–4%
PoliticsVol $24KTotal volume $40.0MLiquidity $614KComments 73in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.75%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
