Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Polymarket traders put "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" at 11.5%. $62K traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
–12%
PoliticsVol $62KTotal volume $3.5MLiquidity $233Kin 1.2 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
11.5%
–
Probability over time
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
