Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Most likely right now
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
8%
PoliticsVol $141Total volume $427KLiquidity $113Kin 10 months (Jun 30)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
7.50%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.