Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
Polymarket traders put "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" at 8.5%. Down 4.0%p from yesterday. $50 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
▼4.09%
PoliticsVol $50Total volume $3.1MLiquidity $17Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
8.50%
▼4.0
Probability over time
December 31
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
