Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
Polymarket traders put "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?" at 7.5%. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
December 31
–8%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $3.1MLiquidity $21Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
7.50%
–
Probability over time
December 31
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
