Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 9.5% on "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
1.010%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $107KLiquidity $26KComments 2in 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
9.50%
1.0
October 31
3.75%
August 31
0.40%

Probability over time

December 31
October 31
August 31
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.