Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Polymarket traders put "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" at 5.5%. $2.3K traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
–6%
PoliticsVol $2.3KTotal volume $5.5MLiquidity $86KComments 64in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
5.50%
–
Probability over time
December 31, 2026
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
