Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Polymarket traders put "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" at 5.0%. Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $687 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Dec 31.

Most likely right now
December 31, 2026
0.55%
PoliticsVol $687Total volume $5.4MLiquidity $59KComments 63Closed (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31, 2026
5.00%
0.5

Probability over time

December 31, 2026
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.