Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
Polymarket traders put "October 1" at 99.2% on "Will Russia target Kyiv on...?". Up 49.1%p from yesterday. $123K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 31 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.
Most likely right now
October 1
▲49.199%
PoliticsVol $123KTotal volume $123KLiquidity $16Kin 1 months (Nov 1)
Current probability
Oct 2 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 1
99.2%
▲49.1
October 2
96.0%
▲12.0
October 4
94.5%
▲45.0
October 3
92.3%
▲42.8
October 5
88.5%
▲39.0
October 14
88.0%
▲38.5
October 15
88.0%
▲38.5
October 13
87.5%
▲38.0
October 12
87.0%
▲37.5
October 6
86.0%
▲36.5
October 8
85.5%
▲36.0
October 11
85.5%
▲36.0
October 7
85.0%
▲35.5
October 9
85.0%
▲35.5
October 10
85.0%
▲35.5
October 19
59.5%
▲9.5
October 20
59.0%
▲9.0
October 16
58.5%
▲9.0
October 17
58.5%
▲8.5
October 18
58.0%
▲8.0
October 21
57.5%
▲7.5
October 28
55.5%
▲6.0
October 23
54.0%
▲4.0
October 25
54.0%
▲4.0
October 30
52.5%
▲2.5
October 31
52.5%
▲2.5
October 29
52.0%
▲2.0
October 22
51.0%
▲1.0
October 24
51.0%
▲1.0
October 26
51.0%
▲1.0
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
