Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?

Polymarket traders put "30+" at 2.5% on "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?". Down 4.5%p from yesterday. $8.3K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Aug 31.

Most likely right now
30+
4.52%
PoliticsVol $8.3KTotal volume $144KLiquidity $200Kin 5 days (Aug 31)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
30+
2.45%
4.5
50+
2.00%
0.8
40+
1.60%
0.9
60+
0.60%
80+
0.35%
100+
0.15%

Probability over time

30+
50+
40+
60+
80+
100+
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.