Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Most likely right now
December 31
–4%
PoliticsVol $699Total volume $7.8MLiquidity $108Kin 4 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
3.70%
–
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
