Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Polymarket traders put "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?" at 2.9%. Unchanged from yesterday. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
December 31
–3%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $7.8MLiquidity $69Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
December 31
2.95%
–
Probability over time
December 31
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
