Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Polymarket traders put "Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?" at 4.1%. Unchanged from yesterday. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
–4%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $152KLiquidity $17Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
4.10%
–

Probability over time

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
02550751008/259/69/139/209/2710/410/9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.