Seoul, Busan, Daegu Mayoral Races Too Close to Call in Final Stretch

On May 28, as the media blackout period began ahead of the June local elections, major metropolitan mayoral races in Seoul, Busan, and Daegu showed a neck-and-neck contest between candidates from the ruling and opposition parties. The polling blackout period ( blackout ) started on May 28, one day before early voting for the nationwide local elections. According to results from surveys conducted immediately before the blackout, candidates from both major parties recorded results within the margin of error or very close figures in the key battleground mayoral elections of Seoul, Busan, and Daegu, indicating a closely contested situation.

In the Seoul mayoral election, considered the most crucial contest, support ratings between Jung Won-oh of the Democratic Party and Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party varied depending on the polling agency. A survey conducted by Embrain Public from May 25-27 showed both candidates at 39%, but a poll by Research & Research from May 24-26 showed a 13.2 percentage point gap, with Jung at 49.6% and Oh at 36.4%. Factors such as the Super-Rapid Transit (GTX) and the Seosomun Overpass collapse incident, along with the outcome of a TV debate scheduled for that evening, are expected to influence the results.

The Busan mayoral election, which has seen a close race, also showed a tight contest in the latest polls. According to a Korea Research survey from May 26-27, Jeon Jae-soo of the Democratic Party led with 47% against Park Heong-joon of the People Power Party at 34%, a 13 percentage point difference. However, a survey by Embrain Public from May 25-27 showed Jeon at 40% and Park at 39%, a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points).

A close contest also continued in the Daegu mayoral election. A survey by Ace Research from May 25-26 showed Kim Bu-gyeom of the Democratic Party at 45.7% and Chu Kyung-ho of the People Power Party at 47.1%, a tight race within the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points). In a survey by Research & Research from May 24-26, Kim was at 41.8% and Chu at 45.1%, also within the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points). For the metropolitan mayoral races in Daegu and the Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam region, predictions suggest that the outcome will hinge on the degree of conservative voter consolidation in the final days of the campaign.