2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target: GWP Revision and Its Impact

The government's finalization of the '2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)' amendment has caused a seismic shift across the industrial landscape. The core issue lies in the comprehensive revision of the 'Global Warming Potential (GWP)' standards—which quantify the impact of each greenhouse gas—from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Second Assessment Report (SAR) to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). According to Ministry of Environment estimates, this change increases calculated national emissions by approximately 7.6% (about 68 million tons). Major manufacturers, including semiconductors, displays, and automobiles, now face a double burden: a surge in converted carbon emissions despite no actual increase in gas usage.

Essence of GWP Revision: The Real Burden Behind Numerical Changes

IPCC Standard Change: Transition from SAR to AR5 and Rising Emissions

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index that converts the heat-trapping capability of a specific gas relative to carbon dioxide (CO2), which is set as '1'. By applying AR5—a 2014 standard reflecting the latest scientific data—instead of the outdated SAR established in 1995, the government has effectively expanded the nominal total national greenhouse gas volume. The figure for methane (CH4) was raised by 33% from 21 to 28, while nitrous oxide (N2O) was lowered by 14% from 310 to 265. This is a necessary administrative measure to prevent international trade friction and respond to global environmental regulations, such as those of the European Union (EU).

Increased Burden under Emissions Trading System and Widening Disparities

The primary challenge arises with synthetic gases like Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6). According to Ministry of Environment data, the GWP indices for these gases surge by up to 40 times during the transition from SAR to AR5. Companies participating in the Emissions Trading System (ETS) must now secure additional allowances from the market or invest massive capital into internal reduction facilities to meet the heightened emission standards. As the variance in calculated carbon emissions widens significantly depending on the gas type, companies are faced with the urgent need to fundamentally redesign their entire carbon accounting management systems.

Industry Impact Analysis: Risks for the Semiconductor and Automotive Sectors

Semiconductors & Displays: Direct Hit from Process Gases

Advanced semiconductor and display manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are identified as the industries most damaged by this amendment. Gases essential for core cleaning and etching processes, such as CF4 (tetrafluoromethane), C2F6 (hexafluoroethane), and NF3 (nitrogen trifluoride), have seen their GWP indices significantly raised under AR5 standards. For instance, certain fluorinated gases jumped from around 1,300 under SAR to between 1,800 and over 2,500 under AR5. A structural vicious cycle has begun, where carbon regulatory penalties increase exponentially even if production volumes remain constant.

Automotive, Refrigeration, Construction: Forced Transition to Eco-friendly Refrigerants and Cost Hikes

Manufacturers of automotive air conditioners, industrial refrigerators, and building insulation materials are no exception. Existing refrigerants like HFC-134a and HFC-410A are classified as high-risk gases with GWPs in the thousands. The revised standards force manufacturers to transition rapidly to low-GWP refrigerants (such as R600a, R1234yf). These new eco-friendly refrigerants are more expensive than their predecessors and require facility upgrades to ensure chemical stability. Requirements to newly establish safety certifications and fire prevention systems ultimately drive up the manufacturing costs of finished goods.

Outlook and Practical Corporate Response Strategies

Imperative Adoption of Precise Carbon Monitoring Systems

The surge in emission allowance costs poses a direct threat to corporate profitability. Therefore, moving away from rough estimation methods to urgently establish real-time precision monitoring systems (CEMS) at the process level is critical. By tracking the type and concentration of gases emitted during semiconductor processes in real-time, companies can maximize the efficiency of gas destruction equipment (scrubbers). Beyond simply purchasing external allowances, improving the efficiency of internal reduction facilities to lower actual emissions is viewed as the sole viable momentum for cost reduction.

Accelerating Development of Low-GWP Alternatives and Facility Investment

In the long term, a transition to new materials and processes that completely replace high-risk GWP gases is inevitable. The semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate the development of innovative new methods, such as replacing existing fluorinated gases with low-GWP alternatives or adopting dry etching processes that eliminate gas usage entirely. The automotive and cooling sectors must also expedite the commercialization of technologies like R744 (CO2 refrigerants) or hydrogen refrigerants, which are facing tighter regulations in global markets like the EU. This structural shift will serve not merely as a means to evade environmental regulations, but as a core competitiveness for corporate survival, essential for overcoming global trade barriers like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).