President Lee Jae-myung Meets Chinese FM Wang Yi... Full-Scale Discussions on Multilateral Dialogue for End of War

Blue House Ahead of Wang Yi's Visit... End of War Initiative on Diplomatic Front Line

President Lee Jae-myung will meet Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and China's Minister of Foreign Affairs, at the Blue House on the 20th. The meeting is expected to involve an exchange of opinions on the multilateral dialogue initiative to end the Korean War and ways to resume North Korea-U.S. talks. The end-of-war discussion initiative recently presented directly by the President is now effectively being put to the test through the Chinese channel.

The Axis of Lee Jae-myung's Diplomacy: 'End of War Multilateral Dialogue' Initiative

President Lee recently officially established the multilateral dialogue initiative to end the Korean War. The initiative aims to legally and politically finalize the 1953 Armistice Agreement, envisioning a consultative body involving South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., and China. Among these, China is a key actor whose actions will determine the success or failure of the initiative, as it is a signatory to the Armistice Agreement. The meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi is significant as it serves as an opportunity to directly verify China's stance on the end-of-war discussions.

Additionally, the resumption of North Korea-U.S. dialogue is also likely to be on the agenda. President Lee has recently shown a cautious stance regarding intervention in armed conflicts, such as declining a U.S. request for cooperation on Iran's nuclear disarmament. This基调 is expected to lead to a prioritization of dialogue and diplomacy regarding the North Korean issue. China, holding traditional ties with North Korea, is one of the few actors capable of mediating contact between North Korea and the U.S.

Variables of Friction with the Trump Administration

However, distinct challenges remain. Recently, during the reduction of ROK-U.S. combined exercises, allegations of a so-called "passing"—where the Lee Jae-myung government was notified of the decision without prior consultation with the U.S.—have been raised. With holes in communication within the alliance being pointed out, experts note that the U.S. reaction must be considered if sensitive diplomatic agendas like end-of-war discussions are coordinated with China first. The President's presiding over the Ulchi National Security Council (NSC) plenary meeting to check defense readiness is also interpreted as a move to manage security uncertainty.

The necessity of strengthening ties with China is also a driving factor. Aligning with government policy to expand economic and social links during his term, such as expanding exchanges with Chinese labor unions, the President is continuing to broaden the scope of cooperation with China in diplomacy and trade. The meeting with Wang Yi represents the pinnacle of this trend.

Outlook... The First Button Moving from Concept to Negotiation

An agreement on an end-of-war declaration is unlikely to be reached immediately in this meeting. This is because the multilateral dialogue framework itself requires two major premises: North Korea's willingness to participate and U.S. consent. Nevertheless, this occasion will serve as a gauge to determine how much realistic leverage the President's end-of-war initiative has secured. If China sends positive signals regarding participation in multilateral talks, it will gain momentum to expand discussions on the international stage, such as at the UN General Assembly.

Conversely, if China shows a cautious approach, the end-of-war initiative will likely settle as a long-term task distinct from domestic political schedules. Amid a situation where the President's approval ratings continue to hit daily lows for a fifth consecutive week, there is an underlying calculation that diplomatic achievements could serve as an alternative resource to regain domestic support. His remarks at a party-government meeting with Representative Kim Min-seok, emphasizing that "the party, government, and Blue House are a community of destiny and partners in state affairs," are also interpreted as a message pursuing internal unity and diplomatic breakthroughs simultaneously.

The outcome of the Blue House meeting on the 20th is expected to serve as a crucial coordinate that will determine the future of ROK-China relations as well as the direction of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.