AL-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 25-30%" at 30.5% on "AL-01 House Election Margin of Victory". $310 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 25-30%
–31%
PoliticsVol $310Total volume $9.3KLiquidity $70Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 25-30%
30.5%
–
Republican 20-25%
24.5%
▼2.0
Republican 30-35%
18.0%
▼8.5
Republican 35-40%
13.1%
▲1.3
Republican 40-45%
4.90%
▲1.6
Republican 45-50%
4.80%
▲2.4
Republican 0-10%
4.50%
▲0.8
Republican 50%+
4.15%
–
Democrat Wins
3.85%
–
Republican 10-20%
3.30%
▼0.8
Probability over time
Republican 25-30%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 45-50%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
