AL-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 35-40%" at 23.5% on "AL-03 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 3.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 35-40%
3.524%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $325Liquidity $18Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 35-40%
23.5%
3.5
Republican 40-45%
22.5%
5.0
Republican 25-30%
21.0%
6.0
Republican 15-25%
21.0%
8.0
Republican 30-35%
20.5%
3.0
Republican 50-55%
19.5%
4.0
Republican 55%+
19.0%
3.5
Republican 0-15%
18.5%
8.5
Republican 45-50%
10.5%
12.0
Democrat Wins
0.40%

Probability over time

Republican 35-40%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 15-25%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 50-55%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.