AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 30-35%" at 32.0% on "AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 6.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 30-35%
▲6.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $222Liquidity $9.9Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 30-35%
32.0%
▲6.5
Republican 40-45%
28.5%
▲2.5
Republican 35-40%
28.5%
▲3.0
Republican 25-30%
27.0%
▲1.5
Republican 45-50%
26.0%
▲0.5
Republican 0-15%
24.0%
▼2.0
Republican 55%+
23.5%
▲1.5
Republican 15-25%
23.0%
▲3.5
Republican 50-55%
22.0%
▲2.5
Democrat Wins
1.75%
–
Probability over time
Republican 30-35%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 45-50%
Republican 0-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
