AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 40-45%" at 27.5% on "AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory". $470 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 40-45%
–28%
PoliticsVol $470Total volume $21KLiquidity $123Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 40-45%
27.5%
–
Republican 35-40%
22.5%
▼9.0
Republican 30-35%
15.0%
▲1.0
Republican 25-30%
12.5%
–
Republican 55%+
10.4%
▲6.0
Republican 50-55%
8.95%
▲4.0
Republican 45-50%
7.50%
–
Republican 15-25%
6.50%
–
Republican 0-15%
3.05%
–
Democrat Wins
0.50%
–
Probability over time
Republican 40-45%
Republican 35-40%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 55%+
Republican 50-55%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
