Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Most likely right now
Yulia Navalnaya
0.58%
PoliticsVol $27KTotal volume $23.5MLiquidity $2.0MComments 201in 2 months (Oct 10)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Yulia Navalnaya
8.00%
0.5
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
4.65%
UNRWA
4.35%
Pope Leo XIV
3.05%
International Court of Justice
2.90%
Donald Trump
2.15%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
1.85%
Narendra Modi
1.30%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1.20%
Greta Thunberg
1.10%
Julian Assange
1.05%
António Guterres
0.70%
Xi Jinping
0.55%
Charlie Kirk
0.30%
Khaled Mashal
0.25%
Benjamin Netanyahu
0.25%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
0.25%
Elon Musk
0.15%
Vladimir Putin
0.15%
Mohammed bin Salman
0.15%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.