AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Most likely right now
Republican 45-50%
▼5.030%
PoliticsVol $199Total volume $218Liquidity $1.7Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 45-50%
30.0%
▼5.0
Republican 50-55%
29.0%
–
Republican 35-40%
28.5%
▼15.0
Republican 40-45%
27.0%
▼18.5
Republican 15-25%
25.5%
▼4.5
Republican 0-15%
25.5%
▼7.0
Republican 25-30%
24.5%
▼9.0
Republican 30-35%
24.0%
▼7.0
Republican 55%+
22.0%
▼10.5
Democrat Wins
6.50%
▼3.0
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
