AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 35-40%" at 27.0% on "AR-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 13.5%p from yesterday. $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 35-40%
▼13.527%
PoliticsVol $1.3KTotal volume $17KLiquidity $118Kin 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 35-40%
27.0%
▼13.5
Republican 30-35%
24.7%
▼2.9
Republican 25-30%
22.2%
▼2.3
Republican 40-45%
7.90%
▲1.3
Republican 45-50%
7.80%
▲3.7
Republican 0-15%
6.85%
▲1.4
Democrat Wins
5.70%
–
Republican 15-25%
5.45%
▼1.7
Republican 50-55%
5.00%
–
Republican 55%+
1.90%
–
Probability over time
Republican 35-40%
Republican 30-35%
Republican 25-30%
Republican 40-45%
Republican 45-50%
Republican 0-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
