AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 6-9%" at 37.0% on "AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 2.0%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 6-9%
2.037%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $200Liquidity $1.3Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 6-9%
37.0%
2.0
Democrat 12-15%
35.0%
7.5
Democrat 3-6%
34.0%
1.0
Democrat 9-12%
32.0%
2.0
Democrat 15-18%
31.5%
1.0
Republican 0-3%
28.5%
1.5
Democrat 18%+
28.0%
3.5
Republican 3-6%
28.0%
0.5
Republican 6%+
26.5%
3.0

Probability over time

Democrat 6-9%
Democrat 12-15%
Democrat 3-6%
Democrat 9-12%
Democrat 15-18%
Republican 0-3%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.