AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 3-6%" at 17.0% on "AZ-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. $1 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 3-6%
▲0.517%
PoliticsVol $1Total volume $15KLiquidity $117Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 3-6%
17.0%
▲0.5
Democrat 6-9%
14.5%
–
Republican 0-3%
8.30%
–
Democrat 9-12%
8.05%
–
Democrat 0-3%
7.25%
▼4.6
Democrat 12-15%
6.10%
▼1.6
Democrat 15-18%
4.80%
–
Democrat 18%+
4.00%
–
Republican 3-6%
3.35%
▼0.9
Republican 6%+
0.85%
▼0.5
Probability over time
Democrat 3-6%
Democrat 6-9%
Republican 0-3%
Democrat 9-12%
Democrat 0-3%
Democrat 12-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
