AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 20-25%" at 28.5% on "AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory". There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 20-25%
–28%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $6.7KLiquidity $102Kin 24 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 20-25%
28.5%
–
Democrat 15-20%
22.5%
▲0.5
Democrat 25-30%
17.5%
–
Democrat 10-15%
15.0%
–
Democrat 35%+
9.25%
▼1.1
Republican Wins
5.05%
▲1.5
Democrat 5-10%
3.55%
–
Democrat 30-35%
2.70%
▼1.3
Democrat 0-5%
1.70%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 25-30%
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 35%+
Republican Wins
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
