AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 0-5%" at 27.5% on "AZ-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 7.5%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 0-5%
▼7.528%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $237Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 0-5%
27.5%
▼7.5
Democrat 35%+
27.0%
▼1.5
Democrat 10-15%
27.0%
▼9.0
Democrat 5-10%
26.0%
▼2.0
Democrat 30-35%
23.5%
–
Democrat 15-20%
23.0%
▼8.5
Democrat 20-25%
21.0%
▼7.5
Democrat 25-30%
20.0%
▼11.5
Republican Wins
20.0%
▼8.0
Probability over time
Democrat 0-5%
Democrat 35%+
Democrat 10-15%
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 15-20%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
