AZ-09 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 41.0% on "AZ-09 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 6.5%p from yesterday. $814 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
▲6.541%
PoliticsVol $814Total volume $8.1KLiquidity $67Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
41.0%
▲6.5
Republican 20-25%
29.0%
▼1.5
Republican 35%+
11.5%
▲6.5
Democrat Wins
11.3%
▲10.9
Republican 10-15%
10.3%
▼3.1
Republican 25-30%
8.55%
▲1.3
Republican 0-5%
4.35%
▲1.2
Republican 5-10%
3.40%
▼6.7
Republican 30-35%
1.55%
▼2.9
Probability over time
Republican 15-20%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 35%+
Democrat Wins
Republican 10-15%
Republican 25-30%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
