CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

Most likely right now
Mike Thompson
70%
PoliticsVol $16Total volume $8.8KLiquidity $2.1Kin 2 months (Nov 4)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Mike Thompson
69.5%
Eric Jones
27.0%
2.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.