CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 35-40%" at 38.5% on "CA-28 House Election Margin of Victory". There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Democrat 35-40%
–39%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.2Kin 25 days (Nov 3)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 35-40%
38.5%
–
Democrat 45%+
38.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 30-35%
38.0%
–
Democrat 20-25%
38.0%
–
Democrat 15-20%
38.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 5-15%
38.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-5%
38.0%
–
Republican Wins
37.6%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 45%+
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 15-20%
Democrat 5-15%
2026-09-30 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
