CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican Wins" at 42.2% on "CA-38 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 5.1%p from yesterday. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican Wins
▲5.142%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $289Liquidity $773in 11 days (Nov 3)
Current probability
Oct 23 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican Wins
42.2%
▲5.1
Democrat 20-25%
41.0%
▲3.0
Democrat 5-10%
41.0%
▲3.5
Democrat 0-5%
41.0%
▲4.0
Probability over time
Republican Wins
Democrat 20-25%
Democrat 5-10%
Democrat 0-5%
2026-09-03 ~ 2026-10-23 · y-axis %
