China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Polymarket traders put "China ballistic missile launch by December 31?" at 17.0%. Up 0.5%p from yesterday. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
▲0.517%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $14KLiquidity $12Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
17.0%
▲0.5
Probability over time
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
