Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 20.5% on "Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?". Down 1.5%p from yesterday. $41K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
▼1.521%
PoliticsVol $41KTotal volume $41KLiquidity $1.6Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Sep 30 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
20.5%
▼1.5
October 31
10.0%
▼3.0

Probability over time

December 31
October 31
02550751009/299/30
2026-09-29 ~ 2026-09-30 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.