Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 67.0% on "Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?". Up 14.0%p from yesterday. $309 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
▲14.067%
PoliticsVol $309Total volume $309Liquidity $349in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 14 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
67.0%
▲14.0
October 31
37.0%
▼14.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.