EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?

Polymarket traders put "December 31" at 65.5% on "EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?". $16K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 2 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
December 31
66%
PoliticsVol $16KTotal volume $16KLiquidity $13KComments 2in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Sep 20 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
December 31
65.5%
October 31
48.5%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.