FL-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 3-6%" at 30.5% on "FL-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 6.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 3-6%
▲6.531%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $80Liquidity $2.0Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 3-6%
30.5%
▲6.5
Republican 21%+
28.5%
▼2.5
Republican 12-15%
28.5%
▲0.5
Republican 9-12%
28.5%
▲1.5
Republican 18-21%
26.0%
▲1.5
Republican 15-18%
23.0%
▲4.0
Republican 6-9%
23.0%
–
Republican 0-3%
23.0%
▲4.0
Democrat 0-3%
8.50%
▼0.5
Democrat 3%+
6.00%
▲2.2
Probability over time
Republican 3-6%
Republican 21%+
Republican 12-15%
Republican 9-12%
Republican 18-21%
Republican 15-18%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
