FL-12 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 38.5% on "FL-12 House Election Margin of Victory". There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
–39%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $823in 25 days (Nov 3)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
38.5%
–
Republican 0-5%
38.5%
–
Democrat 5%+
38.5%
–
Republican 20-25%
38.0%
▼0.5
Republican 10-15%
38.0%
▼0.5
Democrat 0-5%
38.0%
▼0.5

Probability over time

Republican 15-20%
Republican 0-5%
Democrat 5%+
Republican 20-25%
Republican 10-15%
Democrat 0-5%
02550751009/3010/210/410/610/9
2026-09-30 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.