How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Polymarket traders put "10-12" at 75.4% on "How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?". Unchanged from yesterday. There are 6 possible outcomes.
Most likely right now
10-12
–75%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $33KLiquidity $106KComments 2
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
10-12
75.4%
–
13-15
13.3%
▲1.9
7-9
3.65%
▼1.2
>15
0.55%
–
4-6
0.40%
–
<3
0.05%
–
Probability over time
10-12
13-15
7-9
>15
4-6
<3
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
