How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Polymarket traders put "4-6" at 94.3% on "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? ". $5 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes.
Most likely right now
4-6
–94%
PoliticsVol $5Total volume $85KLiquidity $115KComments 1
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
4-6
94.3%
–
7-9
3.70%
–
10-12
2.10%
–
13-15
1.20%
–
>15
1.10%
–
≤3
0.05%
–
Probability over time
4-6
7-9
10-12
13-15
>15
≤3
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
