How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Polymarket traders put "4-6" at 95.7% on "How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? ". There are 2 possible outcomes.
Most likely right now
4-6
–96%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $104KLiquidity $22KComments 3
Current probability
Oct 12 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
4-6
95.7%
–
7-9
2.85%
–
Probability over time
4-6
7-9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-12 · y-axis %
