How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket traders put "47–49 and 193–207" at 25.7% on "How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?". Unchanged from yesterday. $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
47–49 and 193–207
–26%
PoliticsVol $1.6KTotal volume $51KLiquidity $204KComments 4in 26 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
47–49 and 193–207
25.7%
–
≤46 and ≤192
21.4%
▼0.8
47–49 and ≤192
14.1%
–
50–52 and 208–222
12.4%
–
50–52 and 193–207
7.95%
–
≤46 and 193–207
6.25%
▼3.5
≥53 and 208–222
5.90%
–
47–49 and ≥208
4.25%
–
≥53 and ≤207
2.95%
–
50–52 and ≤192
0.85%
–
≥53 and ≥223
0.70%
–
≤46 and ≥208
0.30%
–
50–52 and ≥223
0.15%
–
Probability over time
47–49 and 193–207
≤46 and ≤192
47–49 and ≤192
50–52 and 208–222
50–52 and 193–207
≤46 and 193–207
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
