IA-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket traders put "Democrat 0-3%" at 32.0% on "IA-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 6.5%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.

Most likely right now
Democrat 0-3%
6.532%
PoliticsVol -Total volume -Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability

Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Democrat 0-3%
32.0%
6.5
Republican 6%+
31.5%
0.5
Democrat 3-6%
28.0%
4.0
Democrat 18%+
25.0%
4.5
Democrat 15-18%
24.5%
5.0
Democrat 12-15%
24.0%
10.0
Democrat 9-12%
23.5%
9.0
Republican 0-3%
23.5%
8.0
Republican 3-6%
23.0%
10.5
Democrat 6-9%
22.0%
9.0

Probability over time

Democrat 0-3%
Republican 6%+
Democrat 3-6%
Democrat 18%+
Democrat 15-18%
Democrat 12-15%
02550751008/258/26
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.