IA-02 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 0-3%" at 20.5% on "IA-02 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 0.7%p from yesterday. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 0-3%
▲0.721%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $12KLiquidity $143Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 0-3%
20.5%
▲0.7
Republican 0-3%
18.6%
–
Democrat 3-6%
18.5%
–
Republican 3-6%
13.5%
–
Republican 6-9%
8.00%
–
Democrat 9-12%
7.05%
▲1.6
Democrat 6-9%
5.50%
–
Democrat 12%+
5.00%
▲0.8
Republican 9-12%
2.85%
–
Republican 12%+
0.25%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 0-3%
Republican 0-3%
Democrat 3-6%
Republican 3-6%
Republican 6-9%
Democrat 9-12%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
