IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 15-20%" at 32.0% on "IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Up 3.5%p from yesterday. $210 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Republican 15-20%
▲3.532%
PoliticsVol $210Total volume $12KLiquidity $79Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 15-20%
32.0%
▲3.5
Republican 10-15%
24.3%
–
Republican 20-25%
18.0%
–
Republican 5-10%
11.9%
–
Republican 0-5%
6.80%
▲1.4
Republican 35%+
6.30%
▲0.7
Republican 25-30%
6.00%
–
Republican 30-35%
5.60%
–
Democrat Wins
1.60%
–
Probability over time
Republican 15-20%
Republican 10-15%
Republican 20-25%
Republican 5-10%
Republican 0-5%
Republican 35%+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
