IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Republican 20-25%" at 26.5% on "IA-04 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 5.0%p from yesterday. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 3.
Most likely right now
Republican 20-25%
▼5.027%
PoliticsVol -Total volume $14Liquidity $1.6Kin 2 months (Nov 3)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Republican 20-25%
26.5%
▼5.0
Republican 15-20%
24.5%
▼7.0
Republican 5-10%
24.5%
▼7.0
Republican 35%+
23.5%
▼5.5
Republican 25-30%
23.5%
▼8.0
Republican 10-15%
23.5%
▼6.0
Republican 30-35%
18.5%
▼5.0
Democrat Wins
18.5%
▼4.0
Republican 0-5%
16.5%
▼11.0
Probability over time
Republican 20-25%
Republican 15-20%
Republican 5-10%
Republican 35%+
Republican 25-30%
Republican 10-15%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
