IL-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket traders put "Democrat 40-45%" at 25.5% on "IL-01 House Election Margin of Victory". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $41 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 10 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 4.
Most likely right now
Democrat 40-45%
▼0.526%
PoliticsVol $41Total volume $16KLiquidity $156Kin 25 days (Nov 4)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Democrat 40-45%
25.5%
▼0.5
Democrat 45-50%
22.4%
–
Democrat 35-40%
19.5%
▲1.0
Democrat 30-35%
17.9%
▲1.9
Democrat 50-55%
8.45%
–
Democrat 55%+
5.00%
–
Democrat 25-30%
2.95%
–
Democrat 15-25%
0.75%
–
Democrat 0-15%
0.45%
–
Republican Wins
0.20%
–
Probability over time
Democrat 40-45%
Democrat 45-50%
Democrat 35-40%
Democrat 30-35%
Democrat 50-55%
Democrat 55%+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
